Bloom Energy’s stock has become a major beneficiary of the race to power artificial-intelligence data centers, but its rapid earnings growth may not be enough to justify the valuation investors are currently assigning to the company.
The business has expanded sharply.
Bloom’s second-quarter non-GAAP operating margin reached 22. 5%, compared with 17. 3% in the first quarter and 7. 1% a year earlier. The company has also said it is investing in production capacity as demand grows, while management has linked the increase to adoption of its on-site power systems by hyperscalers, artificial-intelligence companies and data-center operators.
A base-case 2030 valuation assumes revenue of roughly $12 billion, adjusted profit equal to about 22% of sales and approximately 340 million diluted shares. Applying a 30-times earnings multiple would put the shares near $230, slightly below the Oct. 14 close. If the adjusted profit margin settles closer to 17% after taxes, the same valuation would imply a price near $180.
Bloom’s filings identify supply constraints, manufacturing expansion, project delays, tax-credit changes and a slowdown in AI data-center adoption as factors that could affect results. In July, the company rejected allegations from a short seller concerning its accounting and scandium supply chain, saying its financial reporting was accurate and that its supply was sufficient for current demand and backlog. Bloom is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Oct. 22, giving investors a near-term test of whether the exceptional first-half margins can continue.