Oil exports from the Gulf have recovered sharply despite a surge in attacks on commercial vessels around the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf oil flows excluding Iran exceeded 81 percent of prewar levels in September, while Middle Eastern crude exports surpassed their prewar average on 14 days that month. A seven-day average reached 18. 3 million barrels per day on Sept. 30, compared with about 18 million barrels per day before the war.
The recovery has relied on an increasingly complex shipping system. Saudi Arabia has used its East-West pipeline to move oil from eastern fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing Hormuz. Other cargoes have moved through the strait on smaller shuttle vessels, sometimes with tracking systems turned off, before being transferred to larger tankers in the Arabian Sea.
Ship traffic has continued but remains exposed. September recorded 477 non-Iranian-linked transits through Hormuz, the highest monthly total since the conflict began.
The rise in flows has coincided with near-daily attacks. Nine ships, mostly crude tankers, were struck between Oct. 1 and Oct. 7, followed by additional incidents. Reports described tankers hit by unknown projectiles, a vessel that caught fire after being struck, and a tanker damaged by an RPG fired from a small boat northeast of Saudi Arabia. A separate Oct. 7 attack north of Qatar involved multiple projectiles and reported casualties. In another incident southwest of Yemen, an LNG tanker was approached by a skiff carrying seven people, which fired two shots before the tanker’s armed security team fired warning shots.
Several vessels continued sailing after being hit, while crew outcomes and damage or environmental effects were not immediately known in some cases. Authorities have continued advising ships to transit cautiously and report suspicious activity as investigations proceed.
The workaround is carrying higher costs. Freight, insurance and security expenses have risen, while the shuttle system requires more vessels and reduces tanker availability elsewhere. Brent crude remained just below $100 a barrel, compared with about $72 before the war. The Group of Seven has announced plans to release up to 100 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, including diesel, to help control prices.
Analysis: The continued movement of oil does not represent a return to normal shipping. It reflects a more expensive and vulnerable system dependent on alternate pipelines, offshore transfers and vessels accepting substantially greater risks. A further deterioration in maritime security could therefore disrupt the logistics sustaining current export levels even if Gulf oil continues to leave regional ports.