Norway’s petroleum sector is confronting a long-term replacement problem as mature offshore fields decline and recent exploration produces mostly smaller discoveries. Rystad Energy’s base-case outlook puts the resulting production shortfall at 1. 9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2040, a gap that would materially exceed the volumes currently expected from new finds.
For decades, a small number of very large discoveries formed the foundation of Norway’s oil and gas output. The last discovery of that scale identified in the supplied reporting is Wisting in the Barents Sea, found more than a decade ago.
Those projects are not expected to reverse the broader decline. Even at peak output, the discoveries in the current pipeline are forecast to contribute about 700,000 boepd—roughly one-third of the projected 2040 shortfall. The arithmetic leaves Norway dependent on higher-impact exploration if it wants to replace a larger share of the production being lost from aging fields.
There are signs that operators are beginning to accept that risk. Three of the Norwegian Continental Shelf’s largest companies have agreed to drill about five high-impact wells a year for five years, creating a targeted effort to test prospects capable of producing much larger volumes. The commitment does not guarantee a commercial discovery, but it marks a shift from relying primarily on infrastructure-linked additions.
The government is also widening access to exploration acreage. This year’s Awards in Predefined Areas round offers 70 new blocks, with awards expected early next year, while a new petroleum white paper scheduled for 2027 could revisit exploration priorities and the country’s longer-term resource base. But the same outlook expects production to begin declining toward the end of the decade, making the results of upcoming exploration central to whether the country can slow the longer-term fall.