A conservative advocacy group is preparing a $350,000 campaign against Labor in 20 Victorian seats, prompting Coalition MPs to warn that its strategy could damage their effort to win majority government at the 28 November state election.
Advance’s campaign is due to begin on Monday across suburban and regional districts currently held by Labor. Its central 60-second advertisement uses artificial intelligence to depict Premier Ben Carroll with former Labor leaders Jacinta Allan and Daniel Andrews at an imagined election-night celebration, alongside the message that voters should put Labor last regardless of which candidate they rank first.
The approach conflicts with the Coalition’s own argument that voters must place Liberal and National candidates first to remove Labor from office. Coalition MPs said the campaign could divert conservative votes, particularly in seats where One Nation is also competing. Pakenham, Bass, Hastings, Melton and Yan Yean are among the districts identified as important to the Coalition’s route to a lower-house majority.
Advance executive director Matthew Sheahan said the Victorian election offered a trial run ahead of the next federal contest, which is not due until 2028. The group plans to distribute its message through social media, streaming platforms, mobile billboards and print after seeking donations from supporters.
Advance argues that the Coalition and One Nation cannot win a majority independently and that Labor’s prospects depend on preferences. Its representatives cited polling showing that 25% to 35% of Coalition and One Nation voters would preference Labor ahead of the other conservative party, and challenged the Coalition to explain why it was not further ahead on issues including roads, crime and the state’s finances.
Coalition MPs accused Advance of pursuing its own federal priorities and said they did not want its assistance in Victoria. One MP pointed to the group’s earlier federal campaign against the Greens, which they said helped Labor, and argued that its Victorian campaign could instead benefit One Nation. Electoral analyst Ben Raue said the strategy was consistent with Advance seeking a broader conservative vote but could still harm the Coalition as it tries to protect its right flank.
Early voting opens on 18 November, and the election will be held on 28 November. The Coalition has reiterated that its own preferred path to changing the government is a first-preference vote for Liberal and National candidates.