A new Lancet commission has identified nuclear conflict and the malicious use of artificial intelligence—including AI-assisted biological weapons—as threats that could potentially cause human extinction by 2100. The commission says the risks remain low-probability, but a nuclear war could inject particles into the upper atmosphere, block sunlight and trigger famine.
It also lists climate breakdown, conventional conflict, naturally occurring pandemics, antimicrobial resistance, air pollution, childhood malnutrition, declining overseas aid, obesity, poor mental health, smoking, high alcohol use, high blood pressure, income inequality, low educational attainment and unhealthy ageing.
The commission compared threats using cumulative disability-adjusted life years, a measure combining years lost to early death with years lived in poor health or disability. The World Health Summit describes the threats as spanning disease, social conditions, environmental change, technology and conflict, with major catastrophic threats defined as those projected to cause more than 1 billion cumulative DALYs.
The commission estimates that a collapse or steep reduction in international health aid could cause as many as 1. 5 billion DALYs before 2100, with nearly 70% of that loss occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. 8C rather than allowing warming to reach 4. The assessment also finds that the dominant risks differ by income level: noncommunicable diseases such as obesity and poor mental health weigh most heavily in higher-income regions, while low educational attainment is a larger driver of health loss in poorer regions.
The 35-member commission was scheduled to present its findings in Berlin on Oct. Its proposed response is to strengthen health systems, invest in technological innovation and improve monitoring of emerging risks. The assessment is intended to be updated annually as new data and hazards emerge.