Oil prices rose about 2% on Monday as fresh attacks in Saudi Arabia and strikes on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz renewed fears of wider supply disruptions.
The buying followed a weekend Houthi attack on Riyadh’s international airport that killed 13 people and injured more than 300, followed by additional attacks on Sunday. Two tankers were also struck near Oman and in the Strait of Hormuz, adding pressure to shipping routes that carry a large share of Gulf energy exports.
Gulf oil exports recovered to 81% of prewar levels in September, but the recovery remained uneven. Crude and condensate shipments reached 91% of earlier levels, while refined-product exports were still only 60%. The International Energy Agency said global oil production fell to 100. 1 million barrels per day in August as more than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf output remained shut in.
Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $85 and estimated that geopolitical risks were adding slightly more than $20 a barrel to current prices. The market was also weighing additional diesel supplies from Russia, including more than 300,000 metric tons announced for U.S. And global markets and another 500,000 tons made available after Moscow partly eased export restrictions.
The price surge came alongside a sharply weaker demand outlook from OPEC. Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said the group expects global oil demand to grow by 400,000 barrels per day in 2026, compared with its 1. 4-million-barrel-per-day forecast at the start of the year. The new estimate was slightly higher than OPEC’s September projection of 380,000 barrels per day but still represented a reduction of 1 million barrels per day from its initial outlook.
OPEC expects demand deferred during the disruptions to return in 2027. The IEA’s forecast is more severe for the current year: it projects a 2. 5-million-barrel-per-day decline in global consumption in 2026, followed by a 2. 6-million-barrel-per-day rebound in 2027.
In the Gulf of Mexico, Shell, Chevron and BP were preparing to restore offshore production after Hurricane Isaias disrupted operations. The competing supply developments left prices focused on whether tanker attacks and damage to regional infrastructure would limit the return of Gulf exports while demand forecasts continued to weaken.