Oil markets are pricing in prolonged supply risks as the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran continues to disrupt crude shipments, refinery operations and tanker movements. Brent was below $70 a barrel in December 2025.
Expectations changed after an initial belief that the conflict would end quickly, reinforced by a brief June ceasefire. Reports that crude flows through the Persian Gulf had recovered did not produce a lasting price decline. Ship-to-ship transfers and rerouted voyages have increased freight costs, while attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty around reported volumes have kept a war-related premium in prices.
Refined fuels are under greater pressure than crude.
The supply rebound remains fragile.
The combination of depleted inventories, damaged refining capacity and costly transport is keeping energy prices elevated even as some crude flows recover. The ICE low-sulfur gasoil contract for November is trading above $1,404 a ton, while the December 2027 contract is at $1,001. The price pressure is feeding into inflation and raising costs for governments, businesses and consumers while the conflict continues.