The global oil market is showing signs of a possible surplus as recovering exports meet weaker consumption, but the evidence remains divided. JPMorgan estimated that supply exceeded demand by 1. 1 million barrels per day in September and 1. 4 million barrels per day in October, nearly matching last year’s average surplus of 1. 3 million barrels per day. The bank also estimated that global demand had fallen by 3. 3 million barrels per day since the conflict began, as high fuel prices and disrupted supplies curbed consumption.
Goldman Sachs reached a different assessment, judging the market broadly balanced in September and October and finding no decline in global inventories during those months. The competing estimates mean that an oil glut is possible but not established across all market measures.
The supply recovery was led in part by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers. Latin American producers, including Brazil, Venezuela, Guyana and Argentina, supplied about 1. 5 million additional barrels per day compared with a year earlier.
The recovery remains vulnerable because tanker traffic through the Gulf is still below normal and shipping data is incomplete. Crude and condensate exports averaged 14 million barrels per day, or about 86% of pre-conflict levels, while refined-product exports averaged 3. 1 million barrels per day, just over half of normal volumes. Tankers switching off tracking systems around the Strait of Hormuz could lead to upward revisions.
The demand outlook adds to the market’s uncertainty. Yet the agency said oil balances could remain in deficit through the end of the year because inventories are depleted and refined-product supplies remain constrained, leaving the market caught between demand destruction and continued physical supply risk.