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Chinese Aluminum Buyers Stay Cautious as Spot Premiums Hold High Despite Falling Futures

Chinese Aluminum Buyers Stay Cautious as Spot Premiums Hold High Despite Falling Futures

Shanghai aluminum futures edged lower during the October 26 morning session, keeping prices near recent lows while physical-market premiums remained elevated. Trading sentiment was initially firm, but some suppliers reduced shipments as futures weakened. Early spot transactions were relatively active before sellers lowered their offers, although the changes did not produce broad-based buying.

Premiums for A00 aluminum ingots were assessed at 280–300 yuan per metric ton. In central China, actual transactions were concentrated at a premium of 150–170 yuan per metric ton against the November SHFE aluminum contract, below the broader quoted premium range. The gap between futures contracts remained wide, encouraging suppliers to keep shipping, while their willingness to defend higher offers was limited.

Downstream processors in central China showed little appetite for substantial restocking. Most purchases were made only to meet immediate requirements, reflecting cautious procurement while futures prices stayed low but spot premiums stayed high. The combination left the market with firm physical pricing but limited transaction breadth.

Aluminum ingot inventories across three domestic regions fell by 9,000 metric tons during the day, extending the recent destocking trend. Earlier trading conditions in South China also showed that low inventories and a backwardated futures structure could support high premiums even when demand was subdued; on September 30, the A00 premium in Foshan was 260 yuan per metric ton against the October contract, while inventories were described as low for the period. For now, the October 26 session showed a market balancing reduced futures prices, high physical premiums, cautious downstream buying and continued inventory withdrawals.

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