South China’s aluminum spot market weakened sharply on Oct. 16 as sellers faced falling futures prices and a surplus of available material. Offers ranged from deep discounts to parity, while spot discounts persisted. Transactions were concentrated at premiums of 290–330 yuan per metric ton over the SHFE November 2026 aluminum contract, but relatively steady procurement did not absorb supply and trading remained subdued.
The futures move widened the market’s backwardation structure. The nearby basis remained weak, while the deferred basis rose instead of narrowing and stayed elevated. Selling pressure increased as traders sought to monetize shipments, and some inventory that had previously been profitable was offered at low prices, adding to the disruption. Concern about buying at high prices further reduced willingness to enter the market.
Official exchange data showed aluminum futures trading between 22,270 yuan and 23,360 yuan per ton on Oct. 16, with a weighted average price of 22,923 yuan and volume of 497,414 lots. The SHFE’s market page listed the November 2026 aluminum contract at 23,270 yuan at the end of the session, up 85 yuan from the previous reference level. The combination of volatile futures trading, persistent supply and cautious spot demand left the physical market under pressure.