Global metal supply risks are expected to ease across most materials used in the energy transition, but copper is projected to remain a major exception. A new long-term outlook covering 10 metals and minerals finds that nine should have sufficient supply capacity through 2050, provided producers keep developing mines and replacing depleted reserves. Last year’s outlook had identified three materials facing deficits.
Copper supply is forecast to fall short beginning in 2028, with the gap potentially reaching 20 million metric tons by 2050, or 44% of projected demand. Closing that shortfall would require an estimated $332 billion in new mine investment. Even then, new projects could take years to deliver metal: the average development time for a copper mine is about 17 years. Declining ore grades and years of limited exploration investment are adding to the pressure.
Electric vehicles, power grids, batteries and charging systems are among the major applications.
The projected shortage could raise prices, encourage substitution with materials such as aluminum in some uses and slow the deployment of electric vehicles, batteries and electricity networks. Without additional capital, total copper supply could decline from 30 million tons in 2026 to 25. 7 million tons in 2050, a 14. 5% drop. Recycling would not fully offset the decline in primary production.
The broader metals outlook is less strained. Lithium demand is forecast to nearly triple to 4. 8 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2050, while graphite demand is expected to more than double to 6. 9 million tons. Battery chemistry changes have reduced projected cobalt and nickel demand.
Supply security remains a separate concern because refining is highly concentrated. More than half of refining capacity for eight of the 10 materials is concentrated in one country, with China accounting for seven of those cases. Recycling is expected to become necessary for six materials by 2035 and eight by 2050. Other market pressures include restrictions on cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo and limits on nickel production in Indonesia.