Oil prices remained supported near $90 a barrel as renewed Middle East tensions and concerns around the Strait of Hormuz kept a geopolitical premium in the market. Refined-fuel inventories were also described as historically tight, including U.S. Distillate stocks at record seasonal lows, while crude flows from the region were nearing pre-war levels more slowly than refined-fuel production was recovering.
The market’s uneven response extended beyond energy. Gold began October near $4,150 an ounce after falling almost 6% in September, with lower-than-expected August core inflation briefly reducing expectations of an October Federal Reserve rate increase to about 34%. That support was limited by elevated long-term U.S. Treasury yields, stronger consumer-spending data and concerns about fiscal deficits, all of which raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
Base metals also reflected a broader risk-off mood. Copper remained the strongest performer in the group and ended September above $14,400 a metric ton, while aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel and tin corrected. A stronger dollar, higher bond yields and the Federal Reserve’s recent rate increase weighed on industrial metals, while China’s Golden Week holiday was expected to reduce trading activity and liquidity across Asian markets.
The strategic importance of the Hormuz route magnified the energy-market reaction.
Recent trading sessions showed how quickly the shock can move across asset classes. Copper also declined about 1% in another Middle East-driven session, with aluminum and zinc moving lower as investors reassessed global growth and industrial demand.
For October, the immediate focus was on whether fuel-market tightness and geopolitical risk would persist while crude supply normalized. The outlook for base metals was volatile, with prices expected to take stronger direction after Chinese markets reopened and as traders monitored currency moves, inventories, economic data and developments affecting regional energy shipments.