China’s automobile production and sales declined year on year in September, extending a weaker first three quarters even as new-energy vehicles continued to expand. Automakers are increasingly relying on overseas shipments while domestic demand remains under pressure.
Passenger-car data showed a sharper domestic slowdown. Even with that decline, NEVs reached a record 67% of passenger-car retail sales; their wholesale penetration rate also reached a record 65.
Exports provided a major counterweight.
Dealers reported weaker-than-usual September-October peak-season traffic and remained cautious about replenishing inventory. High oil prices weighed especially heavily on internal-combustion vehicles, while price competition and weak income confidence encouraged consumers to delay purchases. Replacement demand remained a more important source of support than first-time purchases, and buyers increasingly weighed operating costs, resale value, intelligent features, subsidies and new-model appeal together.
October has a longer effective selling period because the Mid-Autumn Festival fell in late September. Auto shows during the National Day holiday, local subsidies, manufacturer promotions and continuing trade-in subsidies were identified as short-term supports, while the broader market remained characterized by weak recovery and competition for existing demand.