The global refined copper market is expected to remain in surplus through 2027, with the excess rising to about 368,000 tonnes next year from an estimated 104,000 tonnes in 2026. The 2026 projection is slightly above the 96,000 tonnes forecast in April, while the 2027 estimate is broadly unchanged.
New or expanding smelters and refineries in Indonesia, India and the European Union, higher operating rates in Chile and stronger scrap output are expected to drive the increase.
The recovery comes as mine disruptions continue to restrict concentrate supplies for smelters. Growth is being supported by ramp-ups at Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi, Indonesia’s Batu Hijau and Russia’s Malmyzh mines, as well as expansions and improved output at several operations in China, Russia and Peru.
Production remains constrained at Indonesia’s Grasberg and the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Kamoa-Kakula mines after incidents in 2025, while declining Chilean output is limiting overall growth. Mine production growth is expected to accelerate to 3. 1% in 2027 as operations recover in Indonesia and the DRC, output improves in Chile and Zambia, and newer capacity continues to ramp up.
The 2026 demand outlook was reduced slightly because of weaker expectations for the Middle East, North America and the European Union, with Japanese demand also expected to remain subdued.
Demand growth next year is expected to receive support from improved manufacturing activity, new and expanded plants producing semi-finished copper products, stronger operating rates in the Middle East and continued use of copper in the energy transition, urbanisation, digitalisation, data centres, artificial intelligence and semiconductor production. The calculation of Chinese apparent demand does not include unreported inventory changes held by government agencies, producers, consumers and traders, which can materially affect the measured global balance.
The projections remain exposed to supply disruptions and geopolitical developments, including the conflict in the Middle East, which could affect both production and consumption. The forecast therefore describes a projected near-term surplus in refined metal even while mine disruptions continue to constrain the concentrate supply on which much of that refined output depends.