With an assumed annual capacity of 36,000 tonnes per mine, the expansion would amount to roughly one new operation every two months for the next 24 years. More than $100 billion in investment would be required before recycling is counted. A higher-demand scenario, driven by stronger electric-vehicle and energy-storage adoption, would require about 180 mines and more than $150 billion.
Batteries already account for 92% of lithium consumption, compared with about 70% in 2020. Electric vehicles represent 55% of demand today and are projected to reach 76% by 2050, while rapid growth in stationary storage is expected to moderate from its recent pace of more than 60% annually to about 5% a year by the end of this decade.
The supply map is also expected to shift. Australia is forecast to provide 29% of mined lithium in 2026, but its share could fall to 20% by 2050 as existing mines deplete. North America could increase from 1. 7% of mined supply to 13%, while Europe could rise from less than 1% to 5.
Those regional gains face practical obstacles.
Water availability adds another constraint for U.S.
Recycling could reduce the number of new mines required and is forecast to supply almost half of lithium by 2050. But recovered material depends on batteries reaching the end of their useful lives and must remain competitive with newly mined supply. Every shortfall in recycled supply would increase pressure on new mines.