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Zinc rallies as London prompt supply tightens and Chinese spot demand remains cautious

Zinc rallies as London prompt supply tightens and Chinese spot demand remains cautious

Volume rose to 14,026 lots, while open interest increased by 236 lots to 256,000 lots.

The move came as the cash-to-three-month spread moved deeper into backwardation, indicating that nearby metal was commanding a premium over forward delivery. Independent market analysis placed the spread at about $80 a ton on Oct. 26 and said it had doubled after a temporary easing of the squeeze earlier in the month.

The tightening structure supported a broader rise in London zinc even as total warehouse stocks remained far above their early-October level. The contrast between higher outright inventories and a stronger nearby premium points to greater sensitivity in the prompt market to warrant cancellations, withdrawals and the availability of deliverable metal.

Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc also advanced, although its session was less decisive. The most-traded 2612 contract opened at 25,900 yuan a ton, rose to 25,930, fell to 25,750 and recovered to close at 25,895 yuan, up 185 yuan, or 0. Volume fell to 62,002 lots, while open interest rose by 2,280 lots to 121,000 lots.

Physical trading in China remained restrained as prices rebounded. Shanghai mainstream #0 zinc changed hands at 25,725-25,940 yuan a ton, while #1 material traded at 25,675-25,870 yuan. Ningbo prices were about 25,725-25,930 yuan, and Tianjin mainstream #0 zinc traded at 25,670-25,920 yuan. Buyers in Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin and Ningbo largely limited purchases to immediate requirements, while traders reported slower turnover and weaker or stable premiums depending on the region.

Domestic inventories were reported at 191,200 tons as of Oct. 26, a weekly decline of 3,700 tons. The combination of falling Chinese stocks and a firmer London prompt structure provided support to both contracts, but uneven downstream orders kept the physical market from matching the strength of futures. The near-term price signal therefore remained concentrated in exchange spreads and warehouse availability, while weak construction-related demand continued to limit evidence of a broad demand-led rally.

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