Molybdenum is on track for a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2027 as demand grows and new production remains limited, BMO Capital Markets says.
BMO analysts George Heppel, Raj Ray and Helen Amos expect the deficit to continue into 2027 and say prices could reach record highs. Readily available inventories have already been substantially reduced, leaving less cushion if supply remains below consumption.
More than 80% of molybdenum use is tied to metallurgical applications, including engineering and stainless steels. The metal also supports oil and gas infrastructure, refining, power generation and chemical processing because it adds strength, corrosion resistance and high-temperature performance. Other elements can replace it in some uses, but none is a direct substitute across its full range of applications.
About 60% of global production comes as a byproduct of copper mining, especially in Chile and Peru. Falling copper grades, deeper mines, water shortages, permitting delays, higher capital costs and years of underinvestment are limiting growth, while South American supply has stayed broadly flat for about a decade. China has historically increased primary-mine output during shortages, but resource depletion, tighter environmental and safety rules and a shift toward higher-value manufacturing make a similar response less likely this time.
Centerra Gold, which operates the Thompson Creek mine in Idaho and the Langeloth processing facility in Pennsylvania, is targeting production from Thompson Creek in mid-2027.