Rare earth prices were broadly stable on Oct. 15, with most products unchanged and strength concentrated in holmium. Holmium oxide rose by 7,500 yuan per metric ton, while holmium-iron gained 5,000 yuan per metric ton. Praseodymium-neodymium oxide increased by 500 yuan per metric ton, but Pr-Nd alloy prices held steady.
The Pr-Nd oxide quotation range narrowed as low-priced material became less available and suppliers lifted their pricing center slightly. Metal producers kept Pr-Nd alloy offers unchanged because neither costs nor transactions provided a clear reason to adjust prices. Downstream buyers continued purchasing only as needed, with weak inquiries and limited completed orders.
The terbium series stopped a multi-day decline, with both terbium oxide and metal prices unchanged. Dysprosium, gadolinium and erbium products also remained flat, leaving the day’s movement concentrated in holmium rather than spread across the medium-heavy rare earth market.
Outside China, FOB terbium oxide fell by $20 per kilogram and terbium metal declined by $30 per kilogram, while dysprosium oxide fell by $3 per kilogram.
Pr-Nd metal in China stayed near recent highs during the week. On Oct. 16, delivered prices including 13% VAT were quoted at 895,000-900,000 yuan per metric ton after reaching 903,000 yuan during the week.
The market’s supply picture is also being reshaped by projects outside China. Australia’s Arafura secured a binding five-year agreement covering up to 850 metric tons a year of NdPr oxide and associated heavy rare earths from its Nolans project, with volumes set to reach that level at nameplate production. The agreement followed a May term sheet for 500 metric tons a year and includes a possible two-year extension.
Nolans received a final investment decision in May after Australian government support through the Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve, which committed to securing 500 metric tons from the project on a non-binding basis.
Analysis: The day’s pricing pattern points to a market with localized strength rather than a broad-based rebound. Pr-Nd prices remained constrained by subdued buying, while the terbium series found temporary stability after falling and the holmium series moved higher; whether those changes become transaction-supported trends remains unresolved by the reported trading activity.