Shell’s refineries are expected to generate record profits on each barrel of fuel produced after global shortages drove pump prices to all-time highs. In a trading update, the energy company forecast profit margins of $42 per barrel for the July to September period, significantly higher than the $24 per barrel margin in the second quarter. This marks a sharp increase from the previous record of about $28 per barrel set during the early months of the Russia-Ukraine war. The profit gap is attributed to the steep rise in refined fuel prices relative to crude oil costs, exacerbated by disruptions in Gulf oil exports and damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia. Shell’s second-quarter profits for 2026 reached nearly $10 billion, more than doubling the previous year’s figure and setting a new record. The company’s production of about 631,000 barrels per day in the second quarter was bolstered by a major production deal that added 370,000 barrels per day to its output.
The profit surge is particularly beneficial for refineries in the US and Europe, which have seen fuel prices climb despite a partial recovery in crude market prices to around $100 per barrel. Shell’s market value as Europe’s largest oil and gas company has risen to a record high, reflecting the company’s strong financial performance. The company’s recent production deal, completed in early September, added a month’s worth of production to its estimates for the quarter, further enhancing its profitability.
The profit increase highlights the impact of global market dynamics on energy companies, with supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions playing a key role in driving up fuel prices and, consequently, refinery profits.