Buyers in parts of Southeast Asia and the Middle East had placed orders earlier in the first half of the year, and inventories at some customers had reached more comfortable levels by September. That reduced the flow of new orders. Indonesia remained the main destination for Chinese silico-manganese, but the restart of capacity in Indonesia and other markets added competing supply and put pressure on China’s share of overseas cargoes.
Chinese export offers also lost some of their price advantage during the month. Domestic spot silico-manganese prices and steel tender prices did not maintain the upward momentum anticipated during the traditional September demand season. With the domestic market failing to strengthen as expected, the gap that had supported export competitiveness narrowed at the margin.
If domestic prices stay under pressure and mill inventories move toward ports during October and November, lower Chinese quotations may improve the appeal of export cargoes and support new orders. That recovery would remain conditional: without a stronger global steel-demand rebound, monthly growth would be unlikely to match the pace recorded during the first half of 2026.
The medium-term export outlook will depend on the speed at which importing countries, including Indonesia, expand their own silico-manganese output and on whether their production costs fall below China’s. Domestic costs will also be shaped by electricity, environmental-compliance requirements and manganese-ore prices. The verified September decline therefore represents a moderation of momentum rather than a reversal of the year-to-date increase, while the later-year market shifts from the support of a low comparison base toward competition based more heavily on production and export margins.