European buyers are now comparing Indian steel through its carbon-adjusted landed cost, weighing emissions data and contract terms alongside the steel quotation.
EU-27 imports of Indian non-alloy hot-rolled coil reached 517,315 tonnes in January-July 2026, up from 89,641 tonnes a year earlier.
The trade is being shaped by both carbon obligations and steel safeguards. The definitive carbon regime began on January 1, 2026, and applies to covered iron and steel imports. Importers bringing in more than 50 tonnes of covered goods annually must obtain authorised status, declare embedded emissions and surrender certificates; certificate prices are calculated quarterly in 2026.
India’s access to duty-free steel trade was also tightened from April 2025. From July, annual quota liberalisation for Category 1A fell from 1% to 0. 1%, while unused-quarter carry-over was removed under the earlier arrangement. The anti-dumping investigation into Indian hot-rolled coil closed in September 2025 without duties, but imports outside available safeguard quota face a 50% duty under the current framework.
The carbon charge varies by supplier and installation. Emissions cited in producer work range from about 2. 0–2. 2 tonnes of carbon dioxide per tonne of steel at the lower end, around 2. 5 tonnes in the middle and approximately 3. 2–0. 3 tonnes estimated for downstream processing. For hot-rolled coil, billets and slabs, the relevant boundary includes direct emissions and required embedded emissions from precursors, so shipment calculations require product-specific and installation-specific data.
Buyers are therefore negotiating the CBAM clause as closely as the FOB or CFR price. A later carbon deduction can reduce a mill’s export realization even when the agreed steel price is unchanged, making the calculation basis, supporting records and treatment of later adjustments material contract terms. Actual emissions data require independent verification; where information is missing, applicable default values may be used. Where the same functional unit is produced through multiple routes within one installation, the reportable figure must use the required weighted average rather than the emissions of only the cleanest route.
Producers with several production options are seeking to direct lower-emission steel toward Europe, but the commercial value depends on compliant accounting and reliable documentation. Established quality approvals, specifications and supply relationships continue to support Indian mills, while the next booking cycle will depend on the combination of suitable material, verified emissions, an agreed allocation of the carbon bill and an available quota window.