Prices for cobalt chloride and cobalt tetroxide continued to decline through the week ending Oct. 22, with trading activity thin and buyers reluctant to commit beyond immediate needs. Cobalt chloride fell each day, while cobalt tetroxide followed the broader market lower as its price center shifted downward.
The pressure is moving through the supply chain at the same time that smelters are facing losses. Mainstream producers have reduced operating rates to work through inventories, but lower intermediate prices and weaker raw-material bids have prevented production costs from establishing a floor. Earlier shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo have continued arriving in China, replenishing bonded inventories and easing the supply constraints that had supported prices.
Recent import data helps explain why the additional supply is weighing on the market.
The decline has extended downstream. Producers of cobalt tetroxide are lowering offers as cheaper cobalt salts pass through their cost structure, while some higher-cost operations are already selling at a loss. Lithium cobalt oxide cathode makers have generated few inquiries or orders, and many retain raw materials, uncollected long-term contract volumes or both. That inventory position has reduced the need for spot purchases and left little urgency to rebuild stocks.
The same assessment linked the decline to increased DRC-origin supply following weak downstream buying, while noting that buyers holding adequate inventory had little reason to chase offers.
The immediate market balance therefore remains unfavorable for a rebound. Weak demand is meeting recovering raw-material availability, and lower recycling payables are giving financially pressured smelters additional room to reduce prices. Cobalt chloride is expected to remain weak in the short term, while cobalt tetroxide may continue consolidating at lower levels; a durable recovery would require substantive downstream restocking, which has not yet appeared. Market participants are watching the pace of further intermediate arrivals, whether smelters resume purchasing after prices stabilize, and how quickly downstream customers use existing inventories and long-term contract material.