China’s copper industry is expanding smelting capacity, but refined output is increasingly constrained by the availability and cost of raw materials. Some plants resumed operations after maintenance, but shortages of copper concentrate and scrap-derived anodes limited the recovery.
Demand from new and expanded smelting capacity grew faster than supply available for spot trade.
The shortage is drawing buyers from both smelters and fabricators into the recycled-material market. Smelters are seeking blister copper, copper anodes, scrap-derived anodes and suitable scrap, while wire-rod and other processors are increasing purchases of high-grade material such as Millberry, which can replace part of their cathode consumption. Stricter enforcement of reverse-invoicing rules has also reduced the amount of domestic scrap able to enter compliant procurement channels.
The supply squeeze is influencing investment and operating decisions beyond China. Mitsubishi Materials plans to end concentrate processing and related smelting at its Onahama facility by the end of March 2027 while retaining electrolytic refining for copper anodes and scrap-derived anodes. JX Advanced Metals plans to reduce cathode output by tens of thousands of tons and reassess its smelting scale, while investing about 7 billion yen to expand recycled-material pre-treatment capacity by roughly 50% for more complex inputs, including low-grade electronic scrap. Its Richmond, Georgia, operation is designed to process about 180,000 tons of complex recycling material a year. Together, these moves show a shift toward securing feedstock and processing a wider range of recycled materials as capacity alone becomes less decisive for refined-copper output.