Global hot-rolled coil markets diverged during the week of October 9–16 as European import quotas tightened and Asian prices weakened. Northern European landed prices for Indian HRC fell by $10 per tonne week on week, while Italian CIF import prices rose by $5 amid tighter local supply.
India’s fourth-quarter European quota was fully exhausted on October 8, leaving new orders unable to clear until January 2027 or a later quarterly window. The European system provides annual tariff-free quotas and applies a 50% duty once the relevant quota is exhausted. As available allocations dwindled, buyers delayed purchases and attention shifted toward January 1 and April clearance windows.
European mills had not yet released opening prices for the first quarter of 2027. A potential halt at ADI Taranto’s hot end in late October could increase Italian import demand, while Indian offers to Europe lacked transaction support until quotas reset. Turkish mills also struggled to execute higher export offers: quotes were raised as high as $645 per tonne FOB, but European buyers preferred shipments after January 1. Turkish domestic HRC prices rose $5 to $625 per tonne EXW, while imports held at $555 per tonne CFR.
Southeast Asia moved in the opposite direction. Indonesian export prices fell $10 to $515 per tonne FOB, and mainstream ASEAN prices declined from $541 to $535 per tonne CFR. Buyer targets narrowed to $530–$533 per tonne CFR, with Indonesian January–February cargoes trading at $532–$534. Vietnamese buyers had largely completed restocking, while Indian mills favored domestic sales and issued few firm offers to Vietnam. Chinese Q195 HRC was offered at $500 per tonne CFR and Q235 at $510, placing Chinese material $25–$35 below mainstream ASEAN offers.
Chinese HRC export prices edged down as elevated post-holiday inventories and lower raw-material costs weighed on offers. Tianjin FOB prices fell $1 to $494 per tonne, with Friday quotes at $492 from Jingtang, $490 from Caofeidian and $494 from Bayuquan. Indian FOB prices rose $5 to $675 as maintenance at domestic mills tightened availability and supported local sales, leaving India’s Asian and European pricing paths moving in different directions.
Black Sea export prices fell $5 to $515 per tonne FOB as shipping risks reduced the value of available cargoes. Shipowners avoided Romanian and Bulgarian ports, while Russian shipments redirected toward Baltic and northern ports faced congestion linked to grain transport. European import pricing will remain tied to the January quota reset, Italian supply conditions and the release of first-quarter mill offers.