Nickel prices recovered in China on October 19 as traders reduced bearish positions after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh avoided committing to another near-term interest-rate increase. The rebound remained uneven, with futures retreating after an early jump and analysts cautioning that bullish participation had not yet clearly returned.
The average price of SMM #1 refined nickel rose 1,750 yuan to 119,200 yuan per metric ton. Jinchuan #1 nickel’s average spot premium slipped 100 yuan to 4,650 yuan per ton, while mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel was quoted at premiums ranging from zero to 600 yuan.
The most-traded SHFE nickel contract for November 2026 opened little changed, climbed sharply in early trading and then reversed lower. It stood at 116,810 yuan per ton at the morning close, down 1. 28% on the session. The near-term trading range was assessed at 112,000 to 115,000 yuan per ton, reflecting uncertainty over whether the rebound can extend.
Warsh told officials and financial leaders at the IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok that he would not prejudge the Federal Reserve’s October or December decisions.
The shift in rate expectations eased some pressure on industrial metals and supported the unwinding of SHFE nickel short positions.
Oil prices added a competing macroeconomic pressure. Plans to release up to 17 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and an accelerated 100-million-barrel release from international reserves were also reported.
China’s wider policy and market backdrop was mixed. The State Council moved to expand its AI initiative and approved in principle an amendment to the Price Law, while authorities prepared export controls covering 40 technologies across artificial intelligence, biomedicine and photovoltaic products.
The immediate nickel outlook therefore combines softer rate-hike expectations with higher energy costs and limited evidence of sustained speculative buying. That combination points to a rebound driven mainly by position adjustment rather than a confirmed change in the market’s underlying direction.