China’s stronger economic indicators and a fresh package of financial-policy measures improved the macroeconomic backdrop for nickel, but the market response remained cautious.
People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng outlined a possible overhaul of the country’s interest-rate framework at the Financial Street Forum. The central bank plans to study moving its main open-market operation from a seven-day tenor to overnight, broaden loan-pricing benchmarks beyond the Loan Prime Rate and phase out legacy benchmark deposit and lending rates. The PBoC and China Securities Regulatory Commission also introduced liquidity support for large redemptions by non-bank institutions, while the securities regulator advanced registration of the first 18 active exchange-traded funds.
Open interest declined for a second consecutive day as bearish positions were closed, but there was no significant evidence of new long-position building. Near-term trading was assessed at 116,000-120,000 yuan per metric ton, with rebound momentum weakening marginally.
Stainless-steel trading was steadier but still driven mainly by essential demand. The most-traded stainless-steel contract closed at 13,330 yuan per metric ton at the Oct. 20 midday session, while SS2612 was quoted at 13,320 yuan at 10: 15 a. Wuxi premiums for 304/2B material were 600-950 yuan per metric ton, and spot prices were broadly stable as lower nickel-pig-iron purchase prices reduced production costs.
Physical buying remained divided. Some suppliers held firm because of cost support, while others offered discounts and expected prices to fall below the 1,000-point level. The split showed that stronger macro data had not yet produced broad-based urgency among buyers.
Philippine ore supply added another layer of uncertainty. Rainy-season conditions restricted mining, land transport and port loading at some Zambales operations, reducing actual shipment capacity, while mines in Palawan retained some ability to ship. The disruption therefore created regional divergence rather than a comprehensive Philippine shortage. Ample Chinese downstream inventories and weak demand for imported ore limited the effect on prices, while falling Indonesian ore prices and a lower second-half October HPM benchmark weakened the competitiveness of Philippine material entering Indonesia.
The market’s next checkpoints are the recovery of Zambales shipments, actual Palawan exports, freight rates to China and further changes in Indonesian ore prices. Participants will also watch how newly approved Indonesian RKAB quotas translate into mine production and shipments, and how the lower HPM benchmark reaches physical transactions. If mine supply expands while smelters remain restrained by inventories, water-supply problems in Morowali and lower operating rates at affected RKEF lines, Indonesian spot ore prices could remain under pressure.