Brooke Thackray, a research analyst at Global X Canada, argues that uranium offers a long-term investment case because nuclear power demand is expected to expand while new supply takes time to develop. His view comes with a warning about volatility: uranium prices and mining shares may not rise steadily even if the underlying supply-and-demand outlook strengthens.
The uranium market has already shown that tension. Spot prices exceeded $100 per pound in January 2024, their highest level since 2007, before weakening from that peak. Utilities have historically relied on both mined material and secondary supplies such as stockpiles and recycled fuel.
Demand is tied closely to the reactor fleet because nuclear plants require fuel continuously once they are operating. About 440 reactors with combined capacity of roughly 405 gigawatts require approximately 69,000 tonnes of uranium each year. A reference outlook puts nuclear capacity at 398 gigawatts in mid-2025, 449 gigawatts in 2030 and 746 gigawatts in 2040, with annual reactor requirements rising to more than 150,000 tonnes by 2040.
Supply growth is less immediate. Mines supplied about 90% of utilities’ annual requirements in 2024, leaving the balance to stockpiles and other secondary sources. Foreign material made up most deliveries, led by Canada at 32%, Kazakhstan at 28% and Australia at 15%.
Thackray’s investment argument therefore depends on a mismatch that may take years to appear in prices. He has said utilities are currently using the lower spot market when possible, while a broader shift toward term contracts could support prices. He also points to nuclear’s role in meeting power demand, including electricity consumption associated with artificial intelligence, but stresses that investors must tolerate uneven performance and diversify because individual companies can be affected by operational or project-specific developments.