China’s ADC12 cast-aluminum alloy market moved lower through the week ending Oct. 15 as falling primary-aluminum prices reduced cost support while downstream demand failed to accelerate sharply. ADC12 rose by 100 yuan per metric ton to 24,500 yuan early in the week, then fell 200 yuan on Thursday to 24,300 yuan, leaving the weekly price center lower.
SMM A00 aluminum closed at 23,260 yuan per ton on Oct. 15, down 500 yuan from the previous Thursday. The spread between primary aluminum and scrap narrowed to about 2,155 yuan per ton for unpainted mixed aluminum extrusion scrap in Foshan, down 337 yuan week on week, while the spread against shredded aluminum tense scrap narrowed by 615 yuan to about 711 yuan per ton. The reduced gap weakened scrap’s cost advantage and prompted some producers to consider using more wrought-aluminum alloy scrap in their blends.
Scrap prices remained firmer than primary aluminum because tighter invoice supervision continued to restrict the circulation of compliant material. Supply of invoiced scrap was therefore still constrained, while downstream scrap-using plants operated at moderate rates despite the seasonal demand period. A daily market assessment on Oct. 14 also found ADC12 holding at 24,500 yuan per ton, with firm scrap costs limiting the downside even as buyers remained cautious.
Domestic social inventories of cast-aluminum alloy ingots fell to 25,200 metric tons by Oct. 15, down 5,800 tons from the previous month. Futures prices declined more than spot prices after the holiday, widening the futures-spot basis and encouraging some suppliers to release material, which accelerated the inventory drawdown.
Import offers for overseas ADC12 eased to $3,050-$3,130 per ton, leaving imports close to break-even and providing limited additional supply. Near-term prices were expected to consolidate within a 24,000-24,600 yuan-per-ton range. Softer aluminum prices and limited improvement in downstream orders weighed on the market, while firm scrap costs, scarce compliant raw materials, falling inventories and limited import replenishment continued to provide support. Market attention was therefore centered on aluminum and scrap-price movements, invoice supervision, producer operating rates and any improvement in downstream purchasing.