Nine of the operations assessed have at least one risk category rated high.
The risks have coincided with a weak production period for Chile. The first-half disruptions included a winter storm that brought unusually heavy rainfall and snowfall to central and north-central mining regions, damaged transmission infrastructure at Caserones and contributed to partial suspensions at Los Pelambres.
Caserones received a high weather rating even without several high-risk categories, while Radomiro Tomic, Spence and Ministro Hales had no category rated high. Gabriela Mistral was assigned high metallurgy-and-grade exposure after geological factors contributed to a 20% decline in output.
Operational and safety events have continued to shape the risk picture. At Codelco’s El Teniente, an October accident in the Cráter Norte area killed two contractor workers and led the mining regulator to order the temporary suspension of operations in affected sectors. The company has also continued a staged return process after earlier seismic and safety disruptions, with regulators requiring technical evidence that risks are controlled before operations resume.
Its results show that Chile’s supply exposure is concentrated unevenly among major mines, so headline capacity can exceed the volume that is reliably delivered. Future versions are expected to use mine-specific operating histories to estimate probabilities and severity, but the current assessment still places roughly one-twentieth of expected output from the covered operations within the defined exposure, rising to nearly one-tenth at El Teniente.